A. Research Objectives and Basic Findings
A rich set of findings has evolved from pursuance of the basic research objectives. These are very briefly summarized here.
(1) Growth in Immigrants: The changing volume of immigration to California was detailed, showing a sustained downturn in immigration through the entire 20th century to about 1970. Thereafter, an abrupt upturn occurred that is approaching the percent foreign-born found back at the beginning of the century.
(2) A Stable Profile of Newcomers: A profile of the newcomers was developed, displaying the characteristics of persons newly arrived before both the 1980 and 1990 censuses. This showed that the newcomers in 1990 looked virtually the same as newcomers previously. Thus there was no change in the nature of the new immigrants over the past two decades.
(3) Rapid Progress After Settling: The third objective was the most important, namely to measure the progress of immigrants as they reside longer in the U.S. The greatest changes that have been observed occurred after the immigrants are settled in southern California. In the first report we found rapid increases in English language proficiency, citizenship, income, and occupation. The second report found similarly rapid changes in use of public transit, solo car driving to work, and homeownership. The third report found upward mobility out of poverty combined with relocation to the suburbs.
(4) Lifetime Projections: The fourth objective of the first project has proven most difficult. Our intent was to statistically estimate models that could be used for projection of lifetime advancement and assimilation on each dimension cited above. Unfortunately, the existing scientific models have proven inadequate for realistic performance of this task. Our own work has needed to break new technical ground, a much slower process. (Results of this work are cited below.) In addition, the policy questions about immigrant progress have diverged toward a concern for the number of immigrants at each stage of life progress rather than simply an estimation of per capita improvement over the lifetime.
(5) Cumulative Urban Impacts: The second and third project reports have explored the implications for cities where immigrants reside. Despite their upward mobility, the succession of ever-larger immigrant waves has cumulated a growing poverty population in the City of Los Angeles and other gateway areas. Immigrants in the last 10 years also constitute 42% of all the transit users in the region (but 12% of the population), and they dominate both commercial and public services in certain areas.
(6) How Local Planners Have Responded: Having found such growth in the importance of immigrants in the region, and having discovered the sharp differences between immigrants and native-borns, one might ask how local policy makers are planning to accommodate this growth. Every city in California is required to plan for 20 years of growth through a "general plan." The newest and largest general plan prepared in the region is for the City of Los Angeles. The rising prominence of immigrants is even greater here than elsewhere. However, a close evaluation of 879 pages of text reveals only 3 places where immigration. Worse, the plan presumes most growth will come from natural increase, yet 100% of Los Angeles growth over the last decade came from new foreign-born residents. In short, the Los Angeles planners, unlike those in New York, are in denial.
B. Research Products and Overall Contribution
A large number of research products have been issued in a short time. The listing in related publications shows three major reports, and two published articles. Several additional working papers have been generated and are under review for publication. More than the detailed facts researched by the project, the most important product has been exposition of an overall conceptual model. Our research has documented the process of upward mobility, bringing this view front and center in the debates over immigration. Previously, this longitudinal perspective had not been visible because data were not readily available in this form. However, application of our cohort techniques to census data has enabled us to extract the longitudinal process previously buried in the data.
The project has developed a new statistical method in the form of the double cohort technique, and also has innovated by its emphasis on graphic displays to portray the longitudinal trajectories of immigrants, contrasting those to native-born persons of the same race-ethnicity. In fact, one of the most attractive features of the first report for some readers was the insight it provided on the longitudinal behavior of native-borns. In this very real sense, study of immigrants' success has held up a mirror to the rest of society.