Math 218 - Probability for Business
Instructor: Jason Fulman, KAP 424D, 213-821-2218
Email (best way to contact): fulman@usc.edu
Office hours: M 3-4, W 2-3, F 10-11
Class meeting time: THH114, MWF 1-1:50
Teaching assistant: Hengyu Yuan, hengyuyu@usc.edu, KAP 406J, 213-821-2841
Discussion sections in KAP 137 Tu, Th are as follows:
Dis 39547R, 2-2:50
Dis 39548R, 3-3:50
Dis 39549R, 4-4:50
The office hours in the Math Center of all the Math 218 Teaching Assistants are coordinated so that one is available at almost all hours during the week
Supplemental Instruction leader: Evan Kam, evankam@usc.edu
Course materials:
D. H. Hildebrand, R. L. Ott, Statistical Thinking for Managers, 4th ed., ISBN 0-534-20406-6.
MINITAB Student Release 14 for Windows, ISBN 0-534-41975-5.
D. K. Hildebrand, P. J. Hildebrand, Student Solution Manual for Hildebrand and Ott's Statistical Thinking for Managers, 4th ed., ISBN 0-534-35372-x.
Outline, with approximate number of lectures per chapter.
Chapter 3, A First Look at Probability: Sections 3.1-3.3, five lectures
Chapter 4, Random Variables and Probability Distributions: Sections 4.1-4.7, eight lectures
Chapter 5, Some Special Probability Distributions: Sections 5.1-5.3, and 5.5-5.8, seven lectures
Chapter 6, Random Sampling and Sampling Distributions: Sections 6.1-6.3, four lectures
Chapter 7, Estimation: Sections 7.1-7.7, eight lectures
Chapter 8, Hypothesis Testing: Sections 8.1, and 8.3-8.7, seven lectures
Grading policy
15% Quizzes
10% Computer Assignments
40% Two Midterms
35% Common Math 218 Final Exam
Final grades are assigned using criteria consistent among all sections of Math 218
Quizzes and Exams
Quizzes: Starting the second week of classes, quizzes will be given each week in the Thusday sections except during weeks when there are midterms. The quizzes will be based on the weekly problem assignments which will be posted below; these problems are not to be handed in. The two lowest quiz scores will be dropped in the computation of the total quiz score. Because the lowest two quizzes will be dropped, there will be no makeup quizzes. No more than two quizzes can be dropped under any circumstances.
Two Midterms: Midterms are each worth 20% of the total grade, and both will be given in our usual lecture hall.
Midterm I will be on Wednesday, September 30, and cover sections 3.1-3.3, 4.1-4.5.
Midterm II will be on Monday, November 2, and cover Sections 4.6-4.7, 5.1-5.3, 5.5-5.8, and 6.1-6.3.
No make up midterms will be given. If you have a valid, documentable reason for missing a midterm, your final will count for more.
Please note that the material in later chapters can not be understood independently of what has come earlier. Though there will be no direct questions about the Minitab statistical package on the exams, there is a strong connection between those assignments and our material. Calculators are allowed in all exams (graphing calculators included, but not ones which, like Palm Pilots, can also be used as document readers), and students are also encouraged to bring along one standard size sheet (8.5" x 11") of notes, both sides of which may be used. The one page of notes must be an original version in the students own handwriting, and cannot be, in particular, a photocopy. Since a note sheet is allowed, there is no need for additional formulas to be supplied on the exams. Tables will be provided if there are questions that require their use.
The course aims to teach correct reasoning, and therefore, whenever possible, points on quizzes and exams will be assigned according to the reasoning shown. Incorrect reasoning giving (by some miracle) the correct answer, or simply putting down an answer (including the correct one) without showing justification, does not demonstrate understanding and is therefore not worth any credit. However, correct reasoning leading to the wrong answer (by bad luck) is worth nearly full credit. Therefore it pays to always show your work.
Final Exam: The common Math 218 final will be given on Wednesday, December 16, from 2:00-4:00 PM, in THH 102. You will be allowed a formula sheet (standard size, both sides, handwritten, no photocopies allowed) and any type of calculator. Though the final is cumulative, between 1/3 and 1/2 of the final will be on the later material. Make sure to bring your I.D.
The more questions you can work the better prepared you will be for the final. There are a number of past finals and other practice problems sets available.
It would be excellent practice to work one of the past finals under the same conditions as the final, two hours timed, with your formula sheet and calculator, using no external help. In this way you will see if you have any places where you need to concentrate in your studies. After studying in the areas you have identified, do the same with another exam on that page, and so forth. When the time comes to take the actual final, this kind of practice will really pay off.
You should also consider working all of the assigned problems (also known as "sample exam questions") and reviewing the material which was covered in class, and testing your understanding of the material by practicing further on problems which were not assigned.
Remember, when taking the exam, it is important that you show your work so that we can see what you are calculating. The better we can see your train of though the more partial credit we can award when it is deserved. There will be no makeup finals. Please remember to bring your student ID to the exam.
Computer Assignments
You will be introduced to the MINITAB statistics computer package, and there will be MINITAB assignments given during the course. For the assignments you can use the Mathematics Computer Lab in KAP 265 on a walk-in basis, where help from the lab assistants is available. You may also use the USC computing facilities elsewhere on campus which have Minitab.
Assignment #1 due at the start of discussion, October 20.
Assignment #2 due at the start of discussion, November 19.
Assignment #3 due at the start of discussion, December 3.
As this is the last discussion session, no late papers can be accepted. There will be a penalty on any late computer assignments; 10% off if turned in after the start of the lab hour when due but on the same week as the due date, and 25% off if turned in the following week, after which time no late assignments will be accepted.
Homework Assignments
Assignment for Quiz 1, September 3:
Section 3.1: 3,4,7,8,10,11,12
Section 3.2: 14,15,16,17,18,21
Assignment for Quiz 2, September 10:
Section 3.3: 24, 25, 27, 28, 29
Assignment for Quiz 3, September 17:
Section 4.2: 1, 2, 3, 4, 6, 8, 9
Section 4.3: 10,12,18, 20, 21
Assignment for Quiz 4, September 24:
Section 4.4: 22, 23, 24, 27, 28, 29, 30, 31, 32, 33
Section 4.5: 40, 41, 42, 45
Assignment for Quiz 5, October 8:
Section 4.6: 46, 47, 50, 51, 52
Section 4.7: 56, 57, 59, 60, 61, 65, 66
Section 5.1: 1, 2, 3, 4
Assignment for Quiz 6, October 15:
Section 5.2: 6, 8, 9, 10, 11, 14
Section 5.3: 19, 20, 22, 23, 24, 25, 26
Section 5.5: 28, 29, 30, 32, 33, 34
Assignment for Quiz 7, October 22:
Section 5.6: 35, 36, 37, 39
Section 5.7: 41, 42, 43, 46, 47, 50
Section 5.8: 51, 52, 53, 54, 55, 57, 58
Assignment for Quiz 8, October 29:
Section 6.1: 2, 3, 6
Section 6.2: 8, 9
Section 6.3: 10, 11, 16, 18, 19, 20, 21
Assignment for Quiz 9, November 12:
Section 7.1: 1, 3
Section 7.2: 9, 12, 13, 15
Section 7.3: 18, 19, 20, 21, 22
Section 7.4: 23, 24, 25, 26, 28
Assignment for Quiz 10, November 19:
Section 7.5: 29, 30, 31
Section 7.6: 33, 34, 39a, 40
Assignment for Quiz 11, December 3:
Section 8.3: 8, 9, 10, 11
Section 8.4: 12, 13, 14, 15, 17
Additional study questions:
Section 8.6: 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23
Section 8.7: 28, 29, 30, 31, 32, 36, 37, 38
FOLLOW THIS LINK TO A GOOD RESOURCE FOR ADDITIONAL PRACTICE PROBLEMS AND PREVIOUS FINALS