Saturday, April 17, 2004
Starpower in Government
The BBC's online market on celebrity (fame) futures does not (yet) include trades involving California's governor. Arnold's recent successes in Sacramento should convince the remaining skeptics that traditional politicians are easily outclassed by cross-overs with starpower. And once trading in Arnold's popularity (at the BBC site or wherever) gets serious, old-fashioned political punditry will also take a hit.
Just when we thought that clumsy term-limits were the only way to curb the powers of incumbency, there is new hope. Old fashioned Sacramento politicos are no match for our Governator. To those who rue the demise of the professional political class, the best available answers used to involve references to the historical example of part-time pro bono political service. But that's all past. The new argument is that the oldies will not hold their own against celebrity cross-overs. Its no longer a discussion because it's now inevitable.
Will celebrity-politicians also become entrenched? Hard to say. The good news is that they generally hate to be seen in public once they age -- Reagan notwithstanding.
Friday, April 16, 2004
The Democratization of Taste
Today's WSJ includes a column about IKEA, sometimes blocked by NIMBYs, but increasingly a staple of Bobo (apologies to David Brooks) life.Much has been made of the "democratization of luxury", the fact that middle class Americans now live better than the wealthiest did not so long ago (think medical science if there is any doubt). It seems that the democratization of taste is not far beyond; IKEA (and many others) have emerged to help the newly affluent to adapt to (and make the best of) their new status.
More, perhaps, than even the most optimistic market enthusiasts had ever dreamed.
Wednesday, April 14, 2004
World Poverty
The discussion of the degree of progress against world poverty in The Economist continues. For those who do not specialize in this field, the presentations have been enlightening. In this week's issue, the World Bank's Martin Ravallion replies to the coverage that the magazine ran on March 13. The two "sides" of the discussion, using different measures, do not disagree that world poverty is falling. They do highlight different methods of measuring and the degree of improvement. Ravallion points out that most of the world's progress is due to improvements in China.This is no small thing. There could not be a more auspicious demonstration effect. India's progress is probably on China's heels and will only enlarge the demonstration effect. For all of the bad news about the world, this is great stuff.
The news will one day reach the overpopulation pessimists. If so, they may have to go the next step and realize that poverty comes from poor policies. The point about the power of receding statism could not be made more spectacularly than via the example of the world's two most populous countries.
Tuesday, April 13, 2004
Niches and Freedom
Tyler Cowan, recently writing in Forbes about high and low culture, evokes the idea of plenitude. High vs. low is irrelevant when contrasted with the large range of choices now available so widely to so many.The most auspicious questions of this season revolve around the international role and actions of the U.S. They are described as promoting democracy, liberty and freedom. While there is an interesting discussion going on among scholars about how and why political freedom and economic freedom can or should be coincident, it is safe to say that powerful evidence for the integrity of individuals being recognized and respected is the plenitude of material choices that free markets offer them.
It is profound but not acknowledged in polite (political) company.
Monday, April 12, 2004
Not Bowling Alone
Assessing our stock of social capital, Robert Putnam famously concluded that we are essentially Bowling Alone. He was especially tough on "urban sprawl", blaming it for longer commutes and, therefore greater isolation as more people spend more time alone on the road in their single-occupant vehicles. Recent research suggests that Putnam was wrong about the sprawl-commuting connection. So many jobs also relocate to the suburbs that many suburbanites actually have jobs nearby.
What about the rest of our interactions? Casual observation reveals that most of us are connected via cel phones and other wireless communications, much more than ever. Look at the recent performance of wireless stock funds if there is any doubt.
But, what about real person-to-person interactions? Are electronic links complements or substitutes for the real thing? The Federal Highway Administration's travel surveys (NPTS and NHTS) for 1995 and 2001 provide some of the answers. Trip rates per person per day (all trip purposes) are up. They are up most significantly for higher-income people -- but there were more of these in 1995 than in 2001 as more people moved into higher brackets.
Of all the categories of trip-making, the non-work trip types were shopping (down very slightly, across the board), "other family and personal" (down some, also across the board), "school and church" (mostly up), "doctor and dentist visits" (mostly up for a mostly older and richer population), vacations (up for most income brackets), "visits to friends and relatives" (down for the low-income groups; up for others). This leaves all "other social and recreational" which were up the most -- for most income groups.
It seems that there is more good news than bad. We may be tethered to our electronics but we also get out more --and do stuff, often with others. It takes all those cel calls to set up all those play dates.
Sunday, April 11, 2004
Well Offness
Is social science an oxymoron? History will tell. To date, it is hard to make the call. Can the well-offness of the population be calibrated with any precision? GDP and national income accounts have taken their lumps but, at least, they use endogenous and plausible weights (market prices; it is still unclear what Soviet GDP stats were -- nor how serious people could take them seriously).We now have all sorts of new indices of human welfare. The newest, reported in this morning's NY Times Magazine by Ann Hulbert, is the Brookings Child Well-Being Index (C.W.I). Hulbert questions how in the world all of the C.W.I. components (more obesity, less teenage pregnancy, etc.) can be weighted equally?
Equal weights are a sign of maximum uncertainty. How about this as an interim rule: If one is ever prompted to create a new index, forget about it if equal weights are all that are available.
