Saturday, May 01, 2004
Transportation Policy
A case can be made that the US has no urban transportation policy worthy of the name. Roads and parking are, for the most part, not priced rationally -- with predictable results. Public transit is seen as a jobs program -- also with predictable results. Cities regulate taxis, creating legally sanctioned monopolies -- also with the predictable results that service is expensive and poor and that city coffers and wealthy owners make monopoly profits.The Economist reports the New York City story: "Higher fares for an unfair racket ... If a city goes to the bother of regulating its taxi industry, it should presumably have the interest of residents at heart. How, then, to explain the system in New York? It benefits neither passengers nor drivers. Instead, most of the proceeds flow to a third group of 'medallion holders' -- the people who own the aluminum badges that give a taxi the right to pick up passengers on the street. The going rate for a medallion is now about $300,000, so they are usually owned by investment companies, investors or partnerships rather than the driver.
"These monopoly franchise rights were granted back in the Depression, when then notion of using rationing to fight deflation seemed like a good idea. In 1937, 11,787 cab licenses were handed out at $10 each. Remarkably, no more medallions were handed out until 1996 when the city desperate for money (again), sold off another 400 ..."
Why does anyone expect politicized systems to do any better?
Friday, April 30, 2004
More Great Dispersal
Americans (and others) have been getting older, richer and more technologically enhanced -- all of these more rapidly than ever -- for some years now. Social scientists have more and better data, more powerful hardware, fancier software, and occasionally, better theory. But can we keep up? Natural scientists also have better tools but their subject matter (with notable biological exceptions) does not change. Certainly not as rapidly.Much of what is interesting occurs in cities -- and is shaped by them as it, in turn, shapes them -- but even the "city" label is quaint. People are settling in ways and places that require new labels. The National Household Travel Survey copes with the Great Dispersal by placing all of us in either "urban", "second city", "suburban", "town: or "rural" places.
Comparing the 2001 NHTS with its predecessor (1995) NPTS, we see that trip times have been increasing, across the board (all places, all trip purposes). This is news because similar increases had not been apparent in comparisons over previous survey years. How have people coped? Predictably, they traveled less, across the board. Elasticities range from -0.7 to just less than -1.0. This is not a ceteris paribus comparison and we must be careful.
Is this a bad news or a good news story? A good news take suggests that cheaper communications help many of us avoid more expensive travel. But, are we better off? Social science is hard work.
Wednesday, April 28, 2004
Great Dispersal (contd.)
More and more professional sports teams in the U.S. now take on the names of their home state rather that their home town. I believe that the California Angels were the first, although they are now the Anaheim Angels, as that place has achieved some name recognition. Nevertheless, the Arizona Cardinals and the Colorado Rockies and Florida Marlins and many others are located in places that are suburban/exurban enough that a state identification makes sense -- part of the Great Dispersal.David Brooks' appellation supersedes Joel Garreau's Edge Cities because there is now dispersal away from these, with smaller new sub-centers emerging in essentially unpredictable patterns.
Great Dispersal evidence is all around, including the demise of the idea of one old downtown "Chinatown". Rather, "For Asians in U.S., Mini-Chinatowns Sprout in Suburbia" as discussed in today's WSJ. The story notes, "Rice-loving shoppers from the suburbs are driving to about 70 stand-alone Asian shopping centers on the coasts -- not only in NY and LA, but Seattle, Baltimore and Miami -- and about 50 in such mid-American cities as Denver, Minneapolis and Phoenix."
Evolving lifestyle trends have overwhelmed planners' plodding discussions about how to contain and manage all of this. And they call their task "Smart Growth".
Tuesday, April 27, 2004
Homeownership and Immigration
U.S. homeownership rates are higher than ever. Interest rates are low and the economy is not as "bad" as the CBS Evening News and other media like to stress. Moreover, homeownership rates are highest among naturalized immigrants. "Blacks, Asian and Pacific Islanders, and Hispanics who immigrate to the U.S. and become citizens are more likely to own homes than members of the same ethnic group born in this country ...," reports the State Dept.
The "immigration debate" has been complicated by all sorts of domestic and international politics. Yet, a simple barometer of what naturalized immigrants do for the U.S. -- and what the U.S. does for them -- is very clear. And yet much too rarely cited.
Monday, April 26, 2004
Evolving Variances
Asking, "Can Drug-Free Baseball Stars Smash Records?", Stephen Metcalf evokes Stephen J. Gould's "Why No One Hits .400 Anymore." Again, it takes good questions to provoke good discussions. Gould paid attention to changes in variances and came up with a good story. Not only are offensive and defensive abilities, on average, both improving but there are reasons to think that variances are getting smaller and fewer outliers are to be expected.In most social science and related discussions, it is natural to focus on trends in mean values. Much less investigation is focused on whether variances have evolved in interesting ways.
Anomalous prices have shorter life spans in the global economy. But, this means there are more and better reasons to avoid price competition and product differentiate if at all possible. But quality advantages will be more easily emulated.
Evolving means are the staple of any and all statistical absracts. In a better world, we would also be looking at data on evolving variances. These data exist but are seldom published.
Sunday, April 25, 2004
Tax Everyone Else
Monty Python used to suggest taxing all foreigners living abroad. Great parody. The LA Times comes close with this Sunday's headline story "Most in State Expect Some Tax Increases". They report: "The poll found that the public strongly favors increasing taxes in at least several areas. Nearly four out of five Californians back higher taxes on cigarettes and by the same ratio, alcoholic beverages. An overwhelming 69% support raising income taxes on the wealthy."
The wonderfully open-ended question on the last item asked respondents if they would support, "Raising the state income tax rates for the highest-income residents."
Great unintended self-parody.
